This is the first article in a series that examines transit ridership in the USA for the first half of 2025 for different transit modes using recently released ridership data from the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) National Transit Database (NTD). The NTD is an extremely helpful source of data about the financial, operating and asset conditions of American transit systems, first established after data reporting became required by Congress in 1974. It has a variety of data products but the one we will use for this analysis is the monthly ridership excel file released typically near the beginning of every month, for the 2 months prior since agencies are given 30 days to report monthly data.
This ridership analysis uses Unlinked Passenger Trips (UPT), defined in the official FTA glossary:
- The number of passengers who board public transportation vehicles. Passengers are counted each time they board vehicles no matter how many vehicles they use to travel from their origin to their destination
Most agencies report transfers as one trip which explains ridership disparity between NTD data and official agency data reported to the public, especially in systems with frequent transfers such as the NYC Subway. this series of posts examine year-over-year (YoY) change as well as to 2019 levels and discuss specific factors affecting individual agencies and national ridership for each mode and transit overall.
This first post will look at heavy rail systems in the USA, which are often referred to by a variety of names including rapid transit, metros which is common globally, or in the US occasionally other systems are simply called subways owing to the dominance of NYC in American transit.
To head off frequent inquiries why so and so systems are not included, I will provide the FTA definitions for each respective transit mode for those not familiar with the terminology and criteria, which can be confusing even for experienced transit advocates and enthusiasts.
Heavy Rail (HR): A transit mode that is an electric railway with the capacity for a heavy volume of traffic. It is characterized by:
- High speed and rapid acceleration passenger rail cars operating singly or in multi-car trains on fixed rails;
- Separate rights-of-way (ROW) from which all other vehicular and foot traffic are excluded;
- Sophisticated signaling;
- High platform loading.
NYC Stands Alone in US HR Systems
This chart shows the YoY change for ridership for HR systems excluding the NYC Subway which is shown separately to not distort the scale of the chart as an outlier because it dwarfs all other HR systems ridership combined, let alone as individual systems.
NYC is sometimes called the only real city in the USA, which can be hard to argue with looking at transit ridership and density. To emphasize: the Subway had 77% percent of total HR ridership for the first half of 2025.
The NYC Metropolitical Statistical Area(MSA) also has almost half of all USA transit ridership and is the only city where the majority of residents commute via transit and do not own cars.
Ridership in NYC is up modestly despite the implementation of congestion charging this year in the Manhattan Central Business District (CBD), likely because anyone driving into Manhattan is rich enough to not be affected by the marginal tax or absolutely has to drive for their job. Despite what critics claim, low income folks driving into Manhattan essentially do not exist and can simply apply for a low income waiver if actually needed.
Other Systems
The most prominent story is the continued success of WMATA at attracting rider back into the system due to the stellar leadership of transit industry superstar CEO Randy Clarke, as well as Return to Office (RTO) mandates for Federal employees. The DC Metro provides a stark contrast to the other Great Society Rapid Transit-Regional Rail hybrid system BART, which continues to flounder due to the continued high work from home employment rates for the tech sector and the system’s lack of utility for transportation outside of commuting to Downtown San Francisco. While BART had a modest YoY ridership increase of 7%, the average increase for the mode overall, it still is tied with MARTA for worst ridership recovery since 2019.
Other systems with double digit ridership growth include the T in Boston, which has been recovering from reliability and SOGR issues under the steady leadership of new CEO Phillip Eng that necessitated several shutdowns in the past few years; SEPTA‘s rebrand rapid transit Metro lines B and L, despite the impending severe services Philly transit is facing due to Republican ratfucking and Democratic dilly-dallying, a microcosm of the severe fiscal crisis transit is facing across the US; and San Juan’s Tren Urbano which went fare-free last year leading to robust growth in ridership for the impoverished and neglected colony. The short automated system has had the best post-pandemic ridership recovery for HR despite the system being partially shut down for the last month.
2019 Ridership Recovery
This chart shows the ridership recovery for each system The high recovery of NYC ridership further emphasizes the essential element of transit and trains to every day life in New York, unlike other systems where even fast and frequent rapid transit is often only used by white collar CBD commuters or folks too poor or unable to drive.
The overall average recovery rate for the HR mode is 66% with several notable failures including Chicago’s previously exemplary L system, which suffered severely under the leadership of disinterested Dorval Carter, plagued by reliability issues and incessant smoking on trains. The CBD focus of the system exhibited in the famed Loop has also affected ridership, limiting it’s value for everyday use. While CTA has seemingly improved recently under new leadership, state leaders failed to provide funding despite a large Democratic majority, threatening severe service cuts next year that would decimate the system.
LA Metro is another system that has had worst recovery than merited; the system does not serve a large CBD but has been stymied by anti-social behavior and a large homeless population due to California’s inability to build housing. The fascist ICE crackdown and the Regional Connector opening, which removed some light rail transfers, also has affected recent ridership; however the long awaited Wilshire Subway, opening in several stages over the next few years, has the potential to be the most transformative transit project in the US decades. LA has the largest planned rail expansion in the country and the system should be a bright spot in US transit in upcoming years if the D Line extension and the Sepulveda Pass Line live up to expectations and local leaders allow denser housing to be built around stations, both of which are highly uncertain.
The absolute worst of the bunch is MARTA, which has been an absolute disaster due to incompetent, apathetic, and outright hostile local leaders. BART suffers from the inherent limitations of the system and high fares which limit utility outside of CBD commuting, but local leaders still value BART as an integral part of the Bay Area. MARTA however has been treated with disdain due to racism and anti-urban ideology of local and state leaders; the abysmal land use of Atlanta has always been a drain on ridership, but the complete deterioration of MARTA service is barely acknowledged with local leaders questioning the data instead of trying to improve service. The infrequent and unreliable service on weekends is having an affect on large cultural events in Atlanta’s urban core which rely on the ability of public transit to move large amounts of people efficiently to function smoothly.
While the short-term outlook for many heavy rail systems in the USA is uncertain if not outright bleak due to the fiscal crisis and federal administration, large cities will always need the large throughput capacity that only rapid transit can provide despite what autonomous vehicle stans and anti-transit ideologues claim.
Next we will look at USA light rail ridership in the next blog post, followed by commuter rail, and high ridership bus systems.